Sources and resources for NVIS

EZNEC antenna modelling software
I have found this to be valuable and highly accurate in its predictions regarding SWR.

"Elevation Angle Measurements During a Local Contest," QST, January 2006, p28; Eric van Maanen PA3DES, Ben Witvliet PA5BW, Goos Visser PA0SIR, Albert Westenberg PA0A.
This article gives a very solidly measured account of actual ground wave signals, and shows that they don't travel as far as you might think.

NVIS newsgroup, Yahoo
This is a good place to have your questions answered.